Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 12.852267 14.520166 16.456803 18.906149 21.973077 25.760697 3.091760e+01
2024-10-06 10.855562 12.870074 15.403829 18.927197 23.883988 30.938331 4.246815e+01
2024-10-13 9.366184 11.408879 14.099008 18.061083 24.069902 33.510646 5.129265e+01
2024-10-20 8.247614 10.229407 12.921967 17.050455 23.664666 34.881737 5.868618e+01
2024-10-27 7.420534 9.331750 11.991881 16.202958 23.259480 36.036426 6.630553e+01
2024-11-03 7.532901 9.729947 12.936384 18.351641 28.332360 49.295150 1.151693e+02
2024-11-10 7.328046 9.639870 13.126750 19.296652 31.520926 60.549327 1.811990e+02
2024-11-17 6.764128 8.962407 12.321799 18.379960 30.753274 61.783353 2.104806e+02
2024-11-24 6.427991 8.601758 11.984483 18.249320 31.615811 67.993722 2.898258e+02
2024-12-01 6.115230 8.251911 11.628601 18.027831 32.220151 73.905063 4.048407e+02
2024-12-08 5.874923 7.996850 11.404819 18.023313 33.335217 82.421876 6.467900e+02
2024-12-15 5.693218 7.820739 11.296695 18.227614 35.030753 94.739302 1.330862e+03
2024-12-22 5.412573 7.484610 10.912398 17.881832 35.389154 102.970004 2.940768e+03
2024-12-29 5.211135 7.265020 10.715662 17.905500 36.812072 118.562490 3.030560e+04
2025-01-05 4.913365 6.868745 10.171131 17.110017 35.650562 119.224181 2.545243e+06
2025-01-12 4.620559 6.466724 9.591399 16.179719 33.901216 115.207230 NaN
2025-01-19 4.369067 6.122762 9.098357 15.397689 32.474018 112.471914 NaN
2025-01-26 4.495767 6.417423 9.795685 17.377037 40.476430 194.397814 NaN
2025-02-02 4.467622 6.445263 9.994603 18.244139 45.326421 282.764480 NaN
2025-02-09 4.252843 6.137830 9.523496 17.403051 43.345592 273.456032 NaN
2025-02-16 4.129310 5.985067 9.346318 17.283028 44.260277 318.007879 NaN
2025-02-23 4.005049 5.825381 9.145354 17.079449 44.785982 362.930917 NaN
2025-03-02 3.908716 5.710798 9.026733 17.075295 46.199743 446.245000 NaN